In this Thesis we proposed a linear mathematical model which combines the pavement and bridge condition indices (PIC, BCI) in addition to the common indicator (CI) as a new component composed from two parts; the robustness of the road network and the pavement/bridge interaction. The model is proposed for developed countries such as France and developing country such as Palestine. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach is used to calculate the relative weights for the model indicators. The relative weights for the developed countries are: 0.3, 0.37, and 0.33 for the indicators PCI, BCI, and CI, respectively. For developing country, the relative weights for the same indicators are: 0.53, 0.24, and 0.23, respectively.
The first order Markov Chain is used to predict the degradation of three types of pavements (rigid, semirigid, and mix) utilizing database in the five departments in the West of France. The assessment of uncertainty in the Markov chain evolution is presented through studying the trends of mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation for the very good condition probabilities in the transition matrix using different time steps (2 years, 3 years, 4 years, 5 years, and 6 years). The results show that the trend of rigid pavements is constant with time in terms of coefficient of variation. For semi-rigid and mix pavements, the trend of the standard deviation was constant with time that leads to provide uncertainty modeling of transition probabilities. The propagation of uncertainty for 2 and 6 years time steps through the prediction of pavement condition index is also performed for analysis the effect of the uncertainty.
André ORCESI, Ingénieur des travaux publics de l’état-HDR, IFSTTAR
Sidi-Mohammed EL ACHACHI, Maitre de conférences HDR, Université Bordeaux 1
Sameer ABU EISHEH, Professeur, Université Nationale, An Najah (Palestine)
Shafik JENDIA, Professeur, Université Islamique de Gaza (Palestine)
Directeur de Thèse :
Franck SCHOEFS, Professeur d’université, Université de Nantes
Co-directeur de Thèse :
Philippe LEPERT, Directeur de recherche, IFSTTAR
Co-encadrant de Thèse :
Pierre HANKACH, Charge de recherche, IFSTTAR